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2019 Trades
xlf: 10.23.19 – 12.20.19
ETF | Financial Sector | Status: Closed
Opening Trade
10.23.19
has been completely annihilated in the past couple weeks. As a result there is very little to sell, and a lot of risk in doing so. Until we get even a little blip of an uptick in IV, I am going to have to be patient to sell my usual Until then, I've decided to try out a small in XLF, a financial sector
This trade is almost completely dependent on direction. I need XLF to stay below $28.93 to Since my has about $0.50 more than my I have about $0.50 of buffer room to be wrong as well as positive My strike selection is $3-wide and cost me a net $2.07 debit. This means the most I can lose on this trade is $2.07 and the most I can make is $0.93. I'm risking 2 to make 1, but my probability of profit is about 60% thanks to my $0.50 buffer, and my probability of making max profit is around 40% while my probability of taking a max loss is around 12%. It'd suck to lose $2, but over the course of two months, it's not that bad. Even if this does turn into a loss, it won't be a max loser unless the share price is above 31 at
Ultimately I'm hoping for this dry spell in volatility to come to an end so I can make money on a down move. Since this is a a volatility expansion should amplify my profits nicely. More importantly it would give me an opportunity to put on some high probability trades with better profit potential. My target is around 30-50% of max potential profit on this trade. I'll take it off for the lesser amount if I get the chance to establish some better positions.
Risk Profile:
Strategy: Long DEC 20 28/31 Put Vertical
sto 1 dec 20 28 put
bto 1 dec 20 31 call
Fill Price: $2.07 debit
Position Analysis
U/L Price: $28.43
IV: 19.3%
IVR: 12.6
Liquidity: 4/4
Position: Long DEC 20 28/31 Put Vertical
POP: 59%
Cost Basis: $2.07
Risk: Defined
BPR: $207
Max Profit: $0.93
Max Loss: $2.07
Target P/L: $0.46
Break Even(s): $28.93
Extrinsic Value: $50.00
Net Delta: -47.55
Net Theta: 0.319